医药：医保谈判在即，有望促新一轮创新药放量

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical services industry as "Buy" [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that with comprehensive support, favorable policies for innovative drugs are expected to continue. The overall rules for medical insurance negotiations will remain stable, allowing innovative drugs to receive payment preferences, benefiting several key products. The report is optimistic about leading innovative pharmaceutical companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Support for Innovative Drugs - The State Council approved the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Support for Innovative Drug Development" in July 2024, enhancing policy guarantees across pricing management, medical insurance payments, commercial insurance, drug supply, and financing [3][7]. - Local governments are expected to introduce or deepen supportive policies, significantly aiding the high-quality development of innovative drugs [7][8]. 2. Medical Insurance Negotiation Outlook 2.1. Stable Negotiation Rules - The negotiation rules for medical insurance are stabilizing, with an increasing success rate for negotiations from 59% in 2019 to 85% in 2023. Innovative drugs have received notable policy preferences during negotiations [10][9]. - In 2023, 70% of the 100 renewal drugs were renewed at original prices, with an average price reduction of only 6.7% for those that required price cuts [10][9]. 2.2. Emergence of Key Products - The report notes the stable overall landscape of PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies, with continuous expansion of indications. Several new products have passed formal reviews, including dual antibodies and ADCs [23][26][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product differentiation and recommends focusing on leading companies with significant advantages in innovative drugs [3][23]. 2.3. Companies Likely to Benefit from Medical Insurance Expansion - The report identifies several companies expected to benefit from the expansion of medical insurance coverage, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [3][23][26]. 3. Individual Stock Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed forecasts and valuations for individual stocks within the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the potential for growth driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [3][10].