中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：国有大型银行资本补充的历史复盘及推演-20241018

Core Insights - The report focuses on the historical review and projection of capital replenishment for major state-owned banks in China, highlighting three rounds of concentrated equity financing and ongoing targeted placements, with all placements priced at no less than 1 times PB [2] - A static assessment indicates that if the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of the six major banks increases by 1 percentage point, a total of 1.05 trillion yuan in capital would need to be replenished [2] - The pace of capital replenishment is expected to be phased and tailored for each bank, with Agricultural Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank having more urgent capital needs [2] Historical Capital Replenishment - The historical capital replenishment for the six major banks includes special treasury bonds, injections from China Investment Corporation, rights issues, and targeted placements. Notably, in 1998, special treasury bonds worth 270 billion yuan were issued to four major state-owned banks for capital replenishment [2] - Between 2003 and 2008, China Investment Corporation injected nearly 800 million USD (over 600 billion yuan) into major banks [2] - From 2010 to 2023, the four major banks completed rights issues totaling nearly 200 billion yuan, with capital adequacy ratios improving between 0.65% and 1.52% [2] Current Capital Needs - As of the first half of 2024, if the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of the six major banks is to be increased by 1 percentage point, the required capital replenishment is 1.05 trillion yuan, with specific needs for each bank detailed as follows: ICBC 251.2 billion, CCB 216.9 billion, ABC 221.1 billion, BOC 185.4 billion, BOCOM 90.1 billion, and PSBC 86.1 billion [2] - The urgency for capital replenishment varies, with ICBC and CCB having a capital adequacy ratio exceeding the regulatory bottom line by about 5 percentage points, while ABC, BOCOM, and PSBC are closer to the regulatory limit [2] Short-term and Long-term Impacts - In the short term, if capital is raised at 1 times PB, the dilution of dividend yield is expected to be within 0.5 percentage points, and the overall impact is manageable [2] - Long-term capital replenishment is expected to support the banks' effective backing of the real economy and real estate sectors, maintaining appropriate asset growth and enhancing sustainable profitability and dividend capacity [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets within the banking sector, including Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as undervalued city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Changshu Bank [3] - It highlights the potential benefits of high dividend yield stocks among major banks like ABC, BOC, PSBC, ICBC, CCB, and BOCOM, especially in the context of a weak economic recovery [3]