Putailai(603659) 东吴证券·2024-10-18 00:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 performance is generally in line with market expectations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 9.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [3] - The negative electrode segment is expected to improve profitability starting from Q1 2025, driven by the gradual production of a new base in Sichuan [3] - The coated separator business is stable with increasing volume, while the base film shipments have decreased due to the ramp-up schedule of major clients [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, revenue was 3.51 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. The net profit for Q3 was 380 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 was 28.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 13.68 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.84%, with net profit expected to be 1.68 billion yuan, down 12.24% year-on-year [2][4] - The EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.79 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 16.69 [2] Business Segments - Coated separator shipments are expected to reach 1.8 billion square meters in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a total of nearly 7 billion square meters for the year, representing a 30% increase [3] - The negative electrode segment is projected to ship 33,000 tons in Q3 2024, a decrease of 22% quarter-on-quarter, with an annual shipment forecast of 130,000 to 140,000 tons, down over 10% [3] Cash Flow and Inventory - The company reported an operating cash flow of 1.44 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase, with total operating cash flow for the first three quarters at 1.08 billion yuan, up 68% [4] - Inventory at the end of Q3 was 9.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8% from the end of Q2 [4] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 16 yuan, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2024 [4]