工程机械行业专题（Ⅲ）：以邻为镜，日本工程机械市场的复盘与启示

Investment Rating - The report strongly recommends XCMG Machinery and suggests paying attention to leading companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [4][28]. Core Insights - Over the past 30 years, Japanese construction machinery has outperformed the overall manufacturing and industry sectors, primarily due to a strategic shift towards exports [2][8]. - The correlation between Japan's construction machinery sales and downstream investment cycles has weakened, indicating a transition from new project-driven demand to replacement-driven demand [2][15]. - The "machine replaces human" phenomenon in Japan is driven by rising labor costs, declining productivity contributions from labor, and a shift in construction methods towards intermittent projects [2][18][24]. - The report highlights that Japan's construction machinery market is characterized by low operating hours for equipment, yet an increasing per capita ownership of machinery, suggesting a reliance on machinery to offset labor shortages [2][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Japanese Construction Machinery - Japanese construction machinery has seen domestic sales lag behind overall manufacturing but has outperformed in total output when exports are included [2][8]. - The export strategy has been crucial for the leading companies in the sector, with significant growth in overseas markets [2][10]. 2. Shift in Demand Drivers - The report notes a shift from new construction projects to maintenance and replacement projects, with implications for future sales trends [2][15]. - The correlation between new construction starts and machinery sales has diminished, indicating a need for companies to adapt to changing market dynamics [2][15]. 3. Analysis of "Machine Replaces Human" - The analysis identifies three main factors contributing to the "machine replaces human" trend: declining productivity contributions from labor, changes in construction methods, and rising labor costs [2][18][24]. - Empirical data shows that labor cost increases have a more significant impact on machinery ownership than machinery price decreases [24][27]. 4. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that the domestic construction machinery market in China is likely to remain correlated with new construction starts in the short term, but will gradually shift towards replacement demand in the long term [26]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on resilient segments of the market, such as small excavators and aftermarket parts, during downturns [26].