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保险Ⅱ行业跟踪分析:9月保费点评-寿险增速普遍走扩,财险增长持续提速
GF SECURITIES·2024-10-18 01:04

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The life insurance premium growth has generally expanded due to low year-on-year comparisons and high household savings willingness. The original premium growth rates for major listed life insurance companies from January to September are 9.8% for Ping An, 5.1% for China Life, 1.9% for New China Life, and 2.4% for China Pacific, showing an increase from August's rates of 8.9%, 5.9%, 1.9%, and 1.5% respectively. However, the single-month premium growth in September saw a decline, with rates of 20.1%, -4%, 2.1%, and 12.6% respectively, primarily due to the reduction in the guaranteed interest rate of traditional insurance products, which led to some savings demand being brought forward [3][3]. - The property insurance premium growth continues to accelerate, with the year-on-year growth rates for major property insurers from January to September being 4.6% for PICC Property, 5.9% for Ping An Property, and 7.7% for China Pacific Property, all showing an increase from August's rates of 4.3%, 5.3%, and 7.7% respectively. The growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to gradually expand due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and an increase in average premiums [3][3]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The life insurance premium growth for major companies has shown a general expansion, with Ping An leading in cumulative premium growth due to new business driving renewal premium growth. The shift in product structure towards participating insurance is anticipated due to the reduction in guaranteed interest rates, with a focus on the 2025 new product situation [3][3]. Property Insurance - The property insurance sector has seen a continued acceleration in premium growth, with significant contributions from both auto and non-auto insurance segments. The growth in auto insurance premiums is expected to improve as the average premium stabilizes and macroeconomic recovery takes place [3][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, highlighting that the growth in liabilities and the expected improvement in asset performance, combined with favorable policies, support this outlook. Specific stocks to watch include China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, China Property, and AIA [3][3].