建筑装饰行业行业专题研究：化债“及时雨”下，区域选择及当前建筑选股思路

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on the benefits of debt resolution for construction companies, which is expected to improve order acquisition, financial structure, and valuation [2][3] Core Views - Local debt resolution is progressing smoothly, with a clear five-year debt clearance target. The central government has allocated significant funds to support debt resolution, including 2.2 trillion yuan in 2023 and 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024 [2] - Regions with better economic foundations are expected to see marginal improvements in their economic environment, especially those with significant fixed investment gaps and past central government support [2] - Areas with high expenditure pressure and debt burdens, such as Sichuan, Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan, are likely to receive policy support to alleviate their financial stress [2] - Policy relaxation and endogenous growth in regions where financing platforms have exited are expected to improve local financing capabilities, benefiting local construction companies [2] Regional Selection and Investment Strategies Strategy 1: Regions with Strong Economic Foundations - Regions with better economic foundations, such as Shandong, Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi, are expected to see significant improvements in their fundamentals due to fiscal support and fixed investment gaps [2][17] - These regions have faced pressure on local government revenues, particularly due to declines in land sales revenue, but are expected to benefit from future policy support [17] Strategy 2: Regions with High Expenditure Pressure - Regions with high expenditure pressure, such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi, and Chongqing, are likely to receive policy support to address their financial gaps and high debt burdens [2][21] - These regions have significant fiscal deficits and high debt service pressures, making them key targets for debt resolution policies [21] Strategy 3: Policy Relaxation and Endogenous Growth - Regions where financing platforms have exited, such as Chongqing, are expected to see improved financing capabilities, which will benefit local construction companies [2][29] - The exit of financing platforms in these regions is expected to lead to better financing conditions and increased demand for construction projects [29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading state-owned construction companies in key provinces, central construction enterprises with significant infrastructure projects, and design consulting firms in key regions [3][31] - Specific companies highlighted include Anhui Construction Engineering, Tunnel Co, Sichuan Road & Bridge, and China Communications Construction, among others [3][31] Financial Analysis of Key Companies - The report provides detailed financial analysis of key companies, including their debt levels, asset structures, and profitability metrics [5][31] - Companies such as China State Construction Engineering, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction are highlighted for their strong financial positions and potential for improvement [5][31]