【中泰电子】AI全视角-科技大厂财报专题丨TSMC24Q3点评：业绩指引均超预期，AI为重要驱动力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on TSMC's performance and growth potential driven by AI and advanced processes [1]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q3 revenue reached a historical high of $23.5 billion, exceeding previous guidance and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 36% [3][5]. - The demand for advanced processes and packaging remains strong, with AI being a significant driver of growth [2][8]. - TSMC has revised its 2024 revenue guidance upwards to a growth rate of 28.8%-30%, up from the previous estimate of 24%-26% [5][18]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance and Revenue Guidance - TSMC's Q3 revenue was $23.5 billion, a 36% increase year-over-year and 12.9% quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the previous guidance of $22.4-$23.2 billion [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $10.6 billion, reflecting a 50.9% year-over-year increase [3]. - The gross margin was reported at 57.8%, exceeding the guidance range of 53.5%-55.5% [3]. Advanced Process and Packaging Demand - The demand for advanced packaging is expected to grow faster than the company's average growth rate, with a significant increase in capacity planned for the coming years [9][30]. - TSMC's revenue contribution from AI server processor chips is projected to triple in 2024, accounting for approximately 15% of total revenue [8]. - The company is experiencing strong interest in its 2nm process technology, with customers showing increased demand compared to the 3nm process [10][11]. Capital Expenditure and Expansion Plans - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be slightly above $30 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced processes [18][22]. - The company plans to build seven new fabs this year, significantly increasing its advanced process capacity [22]. - TSMC's advanced process capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from 2020 to 2024 [22]. Revenue Structure and Geographic Distribution - In Q3, TSMC's revenue from high-performance computing accounted for 51% of total revenue, while mobile applications contributed 34% [14][15]. - North America accounted for 71% of TSMC's revenue, showing a year-over-year increase, while revenue from mainland China decreased to 11% [16][17].