石化：政策暖风吹拂，关注顺周期投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1][66]. Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is at the bottom of the economic cycle, and an inventory cycle is expected to start [2][4]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry continues to slow down, with a decrease to approximately 0% in Q2 2024 [5]. - The report highlights that overseas outdated production capacity is being accelerated for elimination, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [10][11]. - Policy support is anticipated to enhance demand, with various measures introduced to stimulate economic growth [12][25]. - The report suggests that petrochemical companies are on a path of transformation and upgrading [52]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with expectations for an inventory cycle to initiate soon [2][4]. - The report notes that the production capacity growth of key petrochemical products is slowing down, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand balance [2]. Capital Expenditure - The growth rate of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has been declining, with a notable drop to around 0% in Q2 2024 [5]. Supply Dynamics - The elimination of outdated overseas production capacity is accelerating due to declining demand and rising costs in Europe [10][11]. Policy Environment - Recent government policies aimed at supporting high-quality economic development are expected to improve demand in the petrochemical sector [12]. Demand and Economic Recovery - The report indicates that the recovery of the domestic economy is likely to drive improvements in profitability for the petrochemical industry [25]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cyclical sectors, particularly refining companies such as Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, and others [59][60].