通信行业24年四季度投资策略：风险偏好抬升，把握结构性机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the communication industry [1] Core Views - The communication sector has shown steady growth in revenue and net profit for several consecutive years, with a solid fundamental outlook [2] - Macroeconomic policies, including monetary easing and fiscal support, are favorable, with industry-specific policies focusing on key areas such as computing infrastructure, satellite internet, IoT, and 6G development [2] - The investment strategy highlights five key areas: high-performance (computing and optical modules), high-catalysts (satellite internet), marginal improvement (submarine cables), high-dividend (operators), and high-potential (6G) [2] Sector Performance and Fundamentals - In H1 2024, the communication sector's total revenue reached 1307.192 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 4.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 7.23% to 125.595 billion yuan [4] - Excluding the three major operators, the sector's revenue and net profit grew by 8.41% and 14.23%, respectively, indicating strong structural opportunities [4] - Key structural opportunities include surging demand for optical modules driven by AI computing, stable operator performance, satellite internet deployment, and the acceleration of offshore wind projects [4] Policy Support and Industry Transformation - Multiple policies have been introduced to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the communication industry, focusing on computing infrastructure, satellite internet, IoT, and 6G [9][10][11][12][13] - The government aims to establish a comprehensive mobile IoT ecosystem by 2027, with a focus on 4G, 5G, and satellite connectivity [9][10] - Policies also emphasize the optimization of computing infrastructure and the development of intelligent computing capabilities [11] Institutional Holdings and Valuation - As of H1 2024, mutual funds' allocation to the communication sector increased to 4.02%, up from 3.11% in Q1 2024, indicating a growing interest in the sector [17] - The sector's PE-TTM valuation remains low at 21.91 as of October 9, 2024, suggesting room for further upside [20] - Historically, the communication sector has outperformed the broader market during bull cycles, driven by its cyclical nature and high-tech attributes [22] Investment Recommendations High-Performance (Computing and Optical Modules) - AI-driven demand for computing power is boosting the optical module market, with product upgrades expected to drive growth [25] - Key companies to watch: Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical, Yuanjie Technology, Changguang Huaxin, and Accelink [25] High-Catalysts (Satellite Internet) - Low-orbit satellite internet is entering the networking phase, with commercialization accelerating [26] - Key companies to watch: Mengsheng Electronics, Sunway Communication, China Satcom, Tongyu Communication, SRS New Materials, Zhongtian Rocket, and Gaohua Technology [26] Marginal Improvement (Submarine Cables) - Offshore wind projects are progressing smoothly, with approvals expected to accelerate, signaling a turning point for the industry [28] - Key companies to watch: Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Oriental Cable [28] High-Dividend (Operators) - Major operators are maintaining stable performance with reduced capital expenditures and high dividend payouts [31] - Key companies to watch: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [31] High-Potential (6G) - 6G technology is advancing rapidly, with commercial systems expected by 2030, offering vast application prospects [33] - Key companies to watch: ZTE, Star-net Ruijie, Datang Telecom, Wuhan Fangu, and Dafu Technology [33]