毛利率显著超预期，2025年将是健康的一年

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $240.07 [1][4][17] Core Views - TSMC's Q4 revenue and gross margin guidance exceeded market expectations, with Q3 2024 revenue at $23.5 billion, a 12.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, and a gross margin of 57.8%, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast [1][10] - The company anticipates a healthy year in 2025, with capital expenditures expected to exceed those of 2024 [1][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was $23.5 billion, up 36.0% year-over-year and 12.9% quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong demand in AI and smartphones [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 57.8%, up 4.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to increased capacity utilization and cost optimization [9] - TSMC's average selling price (ASP) for Q3 2024 was $3,129 per wafer, reflecting an 18.3% year-over-year increase and a 5.7% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][9] Future Outlook - For Q4 2024, TSMC expects revenue between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion, with a gross margin of 57.0%-59.0% [10] - The company projects that AI revenue will account for 15% of total revenue in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% in the coming years [2][10] - Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be slightly above $30 billion, which is below Bloomberg's forecast of $31 billion [1][10] Valuation Analysis - TSMC's target price of $240.07 is based on a 25x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, reflecting its leading position in the AI semiconductor foundry market [4][17] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at NT$61.81, leading to an upward adjustment of the target price from a previous value of $198.84 [17] Production Capacity and Expansion - TSMC's overseas factories are progressing, with the U.S. facility expected to begin mass production in early 2025 and the Japanese facility set to start production in Q4 2024 [3] - The company plans to expand its production capacity for 2nm nodes, which is expected to exceed that of the 3nm nodes [9][10]