轻工社零数据月度跟踪：9月家具社零同比+0.4%，增速由负转正

Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the customized home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home (603833.SH) and Gujia Home (603816.SH), as well as mattress leaders like Mousse (001323.SZ) and Xilinmen (603008.SH) [4] Core Insights - The retail sales of furniture in September 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a positive growth trend after a previous decline of 3.7% [3] - The overall retail sales in September 2024 reached 4.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, reflecting an improvement in market conditions [3] - The government has implemented policies to stimulate consumption, including a 150 billion yuan special bond fund for replacing old household goods, which is expected to have a positive impact on the home decoration market [3] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In September 2024, the retail sales of daily necessities increased by 3.0% year-on-year, while cultural and office supplies saw a significant increase of 10.0% [3] - The furniture retail sales in September 2024 improved significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 4.1 percentage points [3] Real Estate Market Trends - Residential sales area in September 2024 decreased by 11.0% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [3] - New construction area saw a year-on-year decline of 17.7%, indicating a continued pressure on the real estate sector [3] - The government has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment ratios [3] Policy Impact - The report highlights the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies, particularly during key shopping periods such as "Golden September and Silver October" and "Double Eleven" [3] - The combination of policy measures is expected to gradually release positive effects on the real estate market [3]