2024前三季度IPO市场总结及全年展望：IPO市场温和回升，全年打新收益预计处于相对低位

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious increase in investment rating for the IPO market, with expectations of relatively low returns for new stock offerings in 2024 [17]. Core Insights - As of September 30, 2024, a total of 69 IPOs were issued in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, raising a total of 47.868 billion yuan, which shows a year-on-year decline. However, there was a slight recovery in the issuance pace in Q3, with 25 IPOs launched, an increase of 11 from Q2 [2][3]. - The average first-day return for newly listed stocks in 2024 reached 135.59%, with no stocks experiencing a decline on their debut. The average first-day returns for main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market stocks in Q3 were 92.65%, 199.63%, and 77.61%, respectively [3]. - The estimated additional returns for A/B class accounts in the first three quarters of 2024 were 3.6017 million yuan and 2.8711 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to additional return rates of 0.71% and 0.57% for a 500 million yuan account [3][5]. - For the entire year of 2024, it is predicted that the IPO market will maintain a relatively low issuance pace, with an estimated total of 70 to 100 IPOs and a fundraising scale of around 60 billion yuan. The expected first-day average returns for the STAR Market, ChiNext, and main board are projected to be 100%, 150%, and 100%, respectively [3][5]. Summary by Sections IPO Market Overview - The IPO market showed a total of 69 new listings with a fundraising amount of 47.868 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, reflecting a decline of over 70% in the number of IPOs and over 80% in fundraising compared to the previous year [2][3]. Performance of Newly Listed Stocks - Newly listed stocks maintained a high average first-day return of 135.59% in 2024, with Q3 showing strong performance across different boards, indicating a favorable market environment for new listings despite the low issuance pace [3]. Expected Returns for Investors - The report forecasts that A class accounts with a scale of 500 million yuan will achieve an additional return rate of approximately 1.18% for the year, while B class accounts with a scale of 200 million yuan are expected to achieve a return rate of about 1.44% [5][7].