Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5][8]. Core Insights - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and the introduction of new monetary tools, are expected to stimulate the capital market, leading to a significant increase in trading volumes and a boost in financial technology stocks [5][8]. - The financial technology sector has shown high elasticity in previous bull markets, with substantial gains compared to the broader market, suggesting a potential for similar performance in the current market environment [5][28]. - The report emphasizes that both consumer (C-end) traffic and business (B-end) IT spending are critical drivers for the financial technology sector, which is likely to benefit from a reversal in market sentiment [29][38]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - In September 2024, the central bank introduced structural monetary policy tools to support the capital market, resulting in a monthly increase of 57% in financial technology stocks [5][9]. - A significant rise in A-share trading volume was observed, with a record high of 3.48 trillion yuan on October 8, 2024, following the implementation of these policies [5][21]. Financial Technology Sector Performance - Historical data shows that during previous bull markets, financial technology indices outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index significantly, with gains of 404.56% compared to 134.51% from July 2014 to June 2015 [28]. - The report highlights that the financial technology sector's performance in September 2024, with a monthly increase of 56.56%, far exceeded the 20.94% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [28]. Key Drivers for Growth - The report identifies that the performance of stock trading software companies is highly correlated with market conditions, with significant revenue growth during bullish phases [29][30]. - For instance, during the 2015 bull market, major stock trading software companies like Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu reported revenue increases of 443% and 378%, respectively, due to a surge in trading volumes [30][31]. - The report also notes that securities IT companies are expected to benefit from increased IT spending by brokerages as their performance improves in a rising market [38][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several key companies to watch within the financial technology sector, including stock trading software firms like Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu, as well as securities IT providers such as Hengsheng Electronics and Jinzhen Co [8][29].
计算机行业专题报告:政策组合拳+成交额修复,金融IT或迎景气提升
Guohai Securities·2024-10-18 07:38