2024年9月宏观数据点评：三季度GDP增速延续下行，“一揽子增量政策”将有效带动经济增长动能回升

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from Q2, leading to a cumulative growth of 4.8% for the first three quarters[1] - The annual GDP growth target of around 5.0% is expected to be achieved, with Q4 GDP projected to rise to approximately 5.3%[2] - The main factors for the economic slowdown include ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and weak domestic demand, affecting consumer spending and private investment[2] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value grew by 5.4% year-on-year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from August, indicating a recovery in industrial production[5] - High-tech manufacturing added value rose by 9.1%, significantly outpacing overall manufacturing growth, highlighting the development of new productive forces[6] - Q3 industrial production growth was around 5.0%, down nearly 0.9 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to weak domestic demand and ongoing real estate market adjustments[6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in September increased by 3.2% year-on-year, up 1.1 percentage points from August, driven by policies promoting the replacement of durable goods[8] - The cumulative retail sales growth for the first three quarters was 2.7%, reflecting a slowdown compared to the previous year, largely due to the impact of the real estate market on consumer confidence[9] - The upcoming policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market are expected to improve consumer confidence and spending in Q4[10] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for January to September was stable at 3.4%, with improvements seen across all three major investment sectors in September[10] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) in September showed a growth rate of 2.2%, reflecting a recovery from previous weather disruptions and increased funding from special bonds[11] - Manufacturing investment for January to September grew by 9.2%, indicating a significant recovery and surpassing the previous year's growth rate of 6.5%[13]