氟化工行业动态分析：空调排产高增，制冷剂价格高位运行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in air conditioning production and high prices for refrigerants, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [7][19] - The supply of third-generation refrigerants is expected to remain tight due to policy constraints and steady demand from end-users, particularly in the context of appliance upgrades and climate change [19] Summary by Sections 1. Refrigerant Sector Data - As of October 16, 2024, the price of 97% wet fluorite is 3512 CNY/ton, up 2.0% from a month ago and 0.5% from a week ago, supported by tight supply and high production costs [5] - In October, domestic air conditioning production reached 10.33 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with domestic sales up 8.4% and exports up 39.2% [7] - The overall price of refrigerants is high due to supply constraints from maintenance schedules and limited quotas, with a notable increase in demand for replenishment orders [7][19] 2. Third-Generation Refrigerants - As of October 16, 2024, the price of R32 is 38000 CNY/ton, up 7.0% from a month ago, while R125 is priced at 35000 CNY/ton, up 18.6% [8][10] - The price of R134a is 34000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase from a month ago, and R22 is priced at 30500 CNY/ton, up 1.7% [13][16] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tight supply of refrigerants will continue in the short term, with a stable demand outlook for third-generation refrigerants due to the gradual phase-out of second-generation refrigerants [19]