存款利率下调，政策组合共振
HTSC·2024-10-18 08:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [1] Core Insights - The recent reduction in deposit rates is expected to stabilize interest margins and alleviate concerns regarding asset quality in the short term, while strengthening the fundamental operating capabilities of banks in the medium to long term [1] - The report highlights that the recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts, are anticipated to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins [1][3] - The report recommends specific banks based on their asset quality and regional strengths, including Industrial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Nanjing Bank [1] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustment - Major state-owned banks have reduced deposit rates by 5 basis points for demand deposits and 25 basis points for time deposits, effective from October 18 [1] - This adjustment is expected to improve the cost of liabilities and support stable operations for banks [1] Impact on Profitability - The report estimates that the reduction in deposit rates will enhance net interest margins by 1.5 basis points in 2024 and 7.9 basis points in 2025, leading to a projected increase in net profit growth of 1.8% in 2024 and 10.3% in 2025 for listed banks [1][3] Recommended Stocks - Industrial Bank (601166 CH): Buy rating with a target price of 22.06 [1][4] - Ningbo Bank (002142 CH): Buy rating with a target price of 26.29 [1][4] - Hangzhou Bank (600926 CH): Overweight rating with a target price of 15.87 [1][4] - Chengdu Bank (601838 CH): Buy rating with a target price of 19.49 [1][4] - Nanjing Bank (601009 CH): Buy rating with a target price of 12.94 [1][4] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK): Buy rating with a target price of 5.28 [1][4] - Agricultural Bank (601288 CH): Overweight rating with a target price of 5.58 [1][4] - Postal Savings Bank (601658 CH): Overweight rating with a target price of 6.41 [1][4] - China Merchants Bank (600036 CH): Buy rating with a target price of 40.61 [1][4]