Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the green electricity sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Since the introduction of the dual carbon strategy in September 2020, the renewable energy industry has experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in recent years. Despite the increase in installed photovoltaic capacity, profitability has not kept pace, leading to pressure on electricity prices, utilization rates, and returns [1][6]. - The current challenges faced by the renewable energy sector are attributed to systemic issues, including the lack of synchronized electricity market reforms and the impact of non-market interventions on pricing. However, the report suggests that these challenges are temporary, and the sector is expected to recover as policy adjustments are made [1][8]. - The report identifies four key positive marginal changes that could support a recovery in the green electricity sector: 1. A shift towards more rational electricity generation development since July, which is expected to stabilize consumption rates and prices. 2. The introduction of corrective electricity pricing policies, particularly the pilot difference contract model in Guangxi. 3. Rapid advancements in energy consumption control and carbon market policies, with significant changes in the recognition of green certificates. 4. Accelerated subsidy disbursements to alleviate financial pressures on operators [1][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Theoretical Valuation of Green Electricity Companies - The valuation of renewable energy operators is fundamentally based on the certainty of returns, with cash flows generated from projects being reinvested to enhance company value. Key factors influencing valuation include internal rate of return (IRR), discount rates, project duration, and dividend rates [10][11]. 2. Review of Green Electricity Market Trends (2020-2022) - The report reviews the significant market trends from 2020 to 2022, highlighting the initial certainty premium during 2020-2021 and the subsequent sharp corrections in 2022. The decline in investment returns has shifted the investment logic from certainty premiums to uncertainty discounts, leading to substantial valuation adjustments [1][6][9]. 3. Current Opportunities in the Green Electricity Sector - The report emphasizes that despite existing pressures, accumulating positive factors indicate a potential for recovery in the green electricity sector. The analysis suggests that as the certainty of returns improves, the sector may experience significant valuation recovery [1][6][9]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued companies in the Hong Kong stock market, such as Longyuan Power, Datang Renewable, CGN New Energy, and China Power. It also suggests attention to A-share renewable operators like Three Gorges Energy and Yunnan Energy Investment [1].
绿电行业暨新型电力系统系列深度报告一：利多因素量变引发质变 看多绿电板块
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-10-18 08:37