经济数据点评（24Q3/9月）：消费投资补贴显效，化债同时期待扩张

Group 1: Retail and Consumer Trends - In September, total retail sales improved by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.2%, exceeding expectations due to significant improvements in high-limit goods consumption[2] - Retail sales of durable goods related to real estate surged by 8.5 percentage points to 2.8%, driven by subsidies and construction recovery, with home appliances, automobiles, and furniture showing improvements of 17.1, 7.7, and 4.1 percentage points respectively[2] - Service consumption shifted from rapid growth to stable growth, with restaurant income slightly declining by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in September[2] Group 2: Investment and Economic Growth - Fixed asset investment growth improved by 1.4 percentage points to 3.4% in September, with manufacturing investment rising significantly by 2.0 percentage points to 9.8%, marking a near two-year high[7] - Broad infrastructure investment growth increased by 3.5 percentage points to 9.3%, with water conservancy projects reaching a record high growth of 13.4%[7] - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% for the first three quarters, aligning with previous expectations[21] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment saw a slight narrowing of the decline by 0.8 percentage points to -9.4% in September, with policies expected to support both supply and demand sides[7] - New housing starts saw a minor increase in the decline rate to -17.6%, while completions and sales improved by 3.3 and 3.4 percentage points respectively[13] - The central bank's recent policy adjustments, including lowering mortgage rates and increasing loan quotas, are anticipated to enhance liquidity for developers and improve market conditions[13] Group 4: Industrial Production and External Factors - Industrial value-added growth improved by 0.9 percentage points to 5.4%, with utilities and manufacturing sectors showing increases of 3.3 and 0.9 percentage points respectively[18] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges from external trade policies, particularly in electronics and automotive industries, which may experience increasing downward pressure in the coming months[18] - Despite the positive domestic consumption and investment trends, the complex external environment poses risks to export-oriented industries[18]