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房地产70城房价数据点评：9月各线城市住宅价格环比继续下滑，一线城市二手住宅环比降幅最大
Dongxing Securities·2024-10-18 10:09

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Cautiously Optimistic" based on the current market conditions and expected policy support [4][26]. Core Viewpoints - In September 2024, residential prices in 70 major cities continued to decline month-on-month, with the largest drop observed in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities. The new housing price index for September showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.7% [1][2]. - The year-on-year decline in new housing prices for September was -6.1%, with first-tier cities experiencing a year-on-year decrease of -4.7% [2][3]. - The report suggests that the central government's policy focus is shifting from stabilizing to promoting stability in the real estate market, which is expected to provide ongoing support for core city markets [2][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In September, the new housing price index for 70 major cities decreased by -0.7% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month [1]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of -0.5%, with specific cities like Beijing and Shenzhen showing declines of -0.7% and -1.0% respectively [1][2]. - The second-hand housing price index for first-tier cities dropped by -1.2% month-on-month, with notable declines in cities such as Beijing and Guangzhou [1][2]. Year-on-Year Changes - The year-on-year new housing price index for 70 major cities fell by -6.1%, with first-tier cities at -4.7% [2]. - The second-hand housing price index year-on-year decline was -9.0%, with first-tier cities experiencing a drop of -10.7% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality real estate companies in core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, which are expected to benefit from increased policy support [2][4]. - The report highlights that companies with market-oriented operational capabilities, like Longfor Group, are likely to receive good credit support due to the increased "white list" efforts [2][4].