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房地产统计局1-9月数据点评:9月新房销售降幅略微收窄,房企到位资金降幅扩大
Dongxing Securities·2024-10-18 10:09

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the decline in new home sales slightly narrowed, while the decline in funds available to real estate companies expanded [1][4] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to September decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, while the cumulative sales amount decreased by 22.7% year-on-year [2] - The cumulative new construction area from January to September decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative investment in development decreased by 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The funds available to real estate developers decreased by 20.0% year-on-year from January to September, with a significant drop in various funding sources in September [4] Summary by Sections Sales - In September, the year-on-year decline in new home sales area was -11.0%, and the sales amount decreased by -16.3% [2] - The average sales price in September saw a year-on-year decline of -5.9% [2] Development Investment - The new construction area in September saw a year-on-year decline of -19.9%, while the completion area decreased by -31.4% [3] - The cumulative development investment from January to September decreased by -10.1% year-on-year [3] Funds Available - The cumulative funds available to real estate developers decreased by -20.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans [4] - In September, the year-on-year decline in domestic loans was -14.4%, and personal mortgage loans decreased by -26.0% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the central government's policy goals for the real estate market are shifting from stabilization to promotion of stability, which will positively impact core city markets [4] - Quality real estate companies in core cities, such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, are expected to benefit from this shift [4]