Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Insights - In September, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 41.45 CNY/kg, 19.70 CNY/kg, and 31.42 CNY/kg respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 31.99%, 17.49%, and 16.90% [2][9] - The supply side saw an increase in slaughtering willingness due to previous price declines, leading to a rise in average slaughter weight [2][11] - The report predicts a stable price environment in the fourth quarter, supported by low production capacity and potential profitability for breeding enterprises [2][14] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Performance - September saw a continuous decline in pig prices, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.37% for piglets and 3.18% for live pigs [2][9] - The slaughtering rate increased by 3.60 percentage points to 27.46% in September, indicating a slight recovery in terminal consumption [11] Sales Data - The average sales price for major breeding companies decreased in September, with prices for Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope at 18.65 CNY/kg, 19.05 CNY/kg, and 18.81 CNY/kg, reflecting declines of 5.38%, 6.85%, and 5.58% respectively [18][20] - Total slaughter volume for 17 listed pig companies in September was 12.35 million heads, a decrease of 3.79% month-on-month [20][23] Performance Forecast - Companies are expected to report significant year-on-year improvements in profitability due to cost reductions and price increases, with Muyuan projected to achieve a net profit of 10-11 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 642.79% to 697.07% [27][28]
生猪养殖行业月度跟踪：农林牧渔行业：9月均价回调，出栏均重明显提升
Dongxing Securities·2024-10-18 10:09