中国经济三季报：增长韧性强、向好因素多

Economic Growth - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's GDP reached 949,746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[1] - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, and 4.6% in Q3, indicating strong resilience despite slight fluctuations[2] - The GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of positive growth[1] Industry Performance - The primary industry contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth, while the secondary industry contributed 1.4 percentage points, and the tertiary industry contributed 2.5 percentage points[17] - Industrial production showed a slight slowdown, but the value added in the primary industry increased, and the service sector's support for economic growth became more evident[57] - In Q3, the industrial added value grew by 5.4% year-on-year, marking the first rebound since May 2024[57] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 353,564 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%[32] - In September, retail sales grew by 3.2% year-on-year, a significant increase from 2.1% in August[32] - The retail sales of essential and upgraded consumer goods showed strong performance, with food and beverage retail sales growing by 9.9% and 4.5%, respectively[34] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 378,978 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[41] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.2%, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 4.1%[44] - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, but the decline showed signs of narrowing in September[48] Economic Outlook - To achieve the annual GDP growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth rate in Q4 needs to be between 4.4% and 6.6%[57] - Positive changes in economic indicators were observed in September, particularly after the Central Political Bureau meeting, which boosted market confidence[57] - The overall economic trend is expected to stabilize and recover in Q4, supported by recent policy measures and improved market sentiment[57]