9月社零数据点评：可选消费改善，政策效应显现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for key companies in the report is "Accumulate" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the total retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 4.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. For the first nine months, the total retail sales amounted to 35.36 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [4] - The report notes that the decline in optional categories has narrowed, with the "old-for-new" policy showing effectiveness. Retail sales of goods in September were 3.67 trillion yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year, while catering revenue was 441.7 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year. The growth rate of retail sales of goods has improved month-on-month, while catering has slightly declined [4] - The report suggests that the economic data for September shows improvement in most indicators, leading to better market expectations and a potential recovery in the economy. The internal demand situation and market sentiment are expected to warm up, benefiting optional consumption fundamentals and valuations [4] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Data - In September, the retail sales of consumer goods totaled 4.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The first nine months saw total retail sales of 35.36 trillion yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [4] - The report indicates that the retail sales of goods in September were 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while catering revenue was 441.7 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [4] Consumer Categories - The report details that the decline in optional categories such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry has narrowed, with the "old-for-new" policy stimulating a 20.5% year-on-year growth in home appliances [4][7] - The report also mentions that the online retail sales for the first nine months reached 10.89 trillion yuan, growing 8.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 9.07 trillion yuan, up 7.9% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with improving performance and relevant policy or thematic catalysts, particularly in the context of a cyclical recovery where department stores, as a collection channel for optional categories, are expected to benefit [4]