PSBC(SH:601658) Donghai Securities·2024-10-18 11:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant changes in the interest rate environment, leading to a passive adjustment of savings agency rates, resulting in a notable decrease in comprehensive rates [6][8] - The adjustment of agency rates aims to balance maintaining core deposit positions while incentivizing the absorption of low-cost deposits, with a comprehensive rate decrease of approximately 16% compared to the last adjustment [6][8] - The report anticipates that the new deposit rate cuts will effectively counterbalance the downward pressure from existing housing loan rates and LPR [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 3477, 3625, and 3883 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 878, 918, and 951 billion yuan [8][14] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 1.83%, 4.49%, and 3.62% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [8][14] Rate Adjustments - The agency savings rates have been adjusted downwards by 8 to 33.8 basis points across different terms, with the comprehensive rate now at 1.08%, down from 1.29% [10][11] - The report indicates that the adjustments will lead to a reduction in total agency fees from 1156.23 billion yuan to 1005.65 billion yuan, a decrease of 150.58 billion yuan or 13% [8][14] Risk Management - The report suggests that the adjustments will provide greater flexibility to manage rising credit risk pressures and enhance performance elasticity [8][14] - The optimization of the passive adjustment mechanism aims to improve responsiveness to changes in interest rates, shortening the reference period for adjustments to five years [6][8] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the adjustments in agency fees and deposit rates, which will alleviate pressure on both the expense and income sides [8][14] - The anticipated increase in net interest margin due to the new deposit rate cuts is estimated to be around 20 basis points [6][8]