【粤开宏观】短期经济筑底回稳——9月经济数据解读

Economic Performance - In Q3 2024, GDP growth fell to 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to pressures from July and August, with September showing signs of stabilization[1] - The nominal GDP growth rate remained flat at 4% in Q3, attributed to a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index, driven by rising food prices[1] - September economic growth exceeded expectations, with retail sales and consumer spending showing increases of 1.1% and 1.4% year-on-year, respectively[1] Policy Impact - A series of policies implemented since late September have significantly boosted market expectations and confidence, leading to increased activity in the stock and real estate markets[1] - The issuance and utilization of government bonds have accelerated, contributing to infrastructure investment, with broad infrastructure investment growth rising from 7.9% to 9.3% year-on-year from January to September[1] - The real estate sector has shown signs of recovery, with declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue narrowing to 9.4%, 11%, and 16.3% year-on-year, respectively[1] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to recover at a faster pace in Q4, with GDP growth projected to rebound to between 4.8% and 5%[4] - Key drivers for recovery include reduced mortgage pressures on residents, improved consumer sentiment, and enhanced liquidity for real estate companies[5] - Ongoing risks include external economic slowdowns, trade tensions, and internal challenges such as insufficient consumer demand and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies[6]