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华金宏观·双循环周报(第78期):欧央行降息助推美元指数,年底前再降准符合预期
Huajin Securities·2024-10-18 13:01

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its three key policy rates by 25 basis points (BP) on October 17, 2024, due to concerns over inflation and economic activity[1] - The Eurozone's September HICP fell by 0.5 percentage points to 1.7%, below the ECB's long-term target of 2%[1] - The ECB is expected to consider a further 50 BP rate cut in December based on upcoming economic data[1] Group 2: Economic Performance Comparisons - The US retail sales increased by 0.4% in September, exceeding market expectations, which has limited the Federal Reserve's rate cut options[1] - In contrast, the UK and Japan saw significant declines in CPI, with September figures dropping by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points to 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively[1] - The strong performance of the US economy contrasts sharply with the declining internal demand in the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK, necessitating more aggressive monetary easing in those regions[1] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The strong US retail sales data led to a rebound in the US dollar index, which rose above 103.8, while the Japanese yen depreciated past the 150 mark against the dollar[1] - The divergence in economic performance among developed economies is reflected in the varying currency valuations, with the US dollar strengthening against the euro and yen[1] - The anticipated ECB rate cuts could lead to further upward pressure on the US dollar index and potential depreciation of the Chinese yuan[1] Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Expectations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points by the end of the year to support liquidity[1] - The PBOC aims to stabilize the yuan while promoting economic growth, indicating a focus on targeted monetary policy measures in response to domestic demand issues[1] - The PBOC's recent measures, including rate cuts and liquidity injections, are seen as necessary to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and local government debt risks[1]