Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [6][7]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy implementation to yield positive effects [2]. - The report highlights the importance of strong operational capabilities and abundant resources for real estate companies to benefit from the market recovery [2]. Summary by Sections Investment - In September, national real estate development investment decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, a slight improvement from August's decline [3][11]. - The land market showed marginal improvement, with residential land supply and transaction area down by 28% and 1% respectively [11]. - New construction area fell by 20% year-on-year, while completion area decreased by 31%, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [11][15]. Sales - In September, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 11% and 16% year-on-year, respectively, but showed signs of narrowing declines compared to August [4][23]. - The price index for new homes in 70 cities fell by 6.1% year-on-year, with ongoing pressure on prices in major cities [23][31]. - Market confidence has improved since the Golden Week, with new policies expected to stabilize the market [4][23]. Financing - In September, the funds available to real estate developers fell by 18% year-on-year, with significant declines in pre-sales and personal mortgage loans [5][27]. - The "white list" mechanism for financing has been implemented, with approved loans reaching 2.23 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing support for cash flow improvement [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - A-share developers: Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, and Jianfa Co [6][8]. - Hong Kong developers: Jianfa International Group, Yuexiu Property, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group [6][8]. - Property management companies: Greentown Service, China Resources Mixc Life, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property [6][8].
销售量价尚未回稳,期待政策落地见效
HTSC·2024-10-18 13:03