钢材库存持续下降，补库需求有望支撑焦煤价格

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal mining sector, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, supported by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [4][11]. - The supply side shows an increase in coal mine capacity utilization rates, with sample thermal coal utilization at 95.7% (+0.4 percentage points) and coking coal at 87.22% (+0.23 percentage points) [4][11]. - Demand is rising, with inland provinces showing a week-on-week increase in coal consumption by 19,000 tons/day (+5.94%) and coastal provinces by 5,900 tons/day (+3.23%) [4][11]. - Despite a recent decline in domestic steel prices, the ongoing destocking trend in steel (with national social inventory at 7.95 million tons, down 19.5% year-on-year) is expected to support a rebound in coking coal prices [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Viewpoints and Key Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of low-cost coal asset accumulation during this phase of the coal economy cycle [4][11]. - It highlights the expected increase in non-electric coal demand and winter storage coal procurement in regions like Northeast and Inner Mongolia [4][11]. 2. Coal Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The coal sector experienced a decline of 0.97% this week, underperforming the broader market [15]. - The thermal coal segment fell by 0.63%, while the coking coal segment dropped by 1.58% [15]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - As of October 18, the market price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao port was 852 RMB/ton, down 8 RMB/ton week-on-week [25]. - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port was reported at 1920 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton [30]. 4. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report notes a tightening supply situation, with coal production in the first nine months of 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [12][14]. - The report anticipates that the coal supply-demand balance will remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12][13]. 5. Coal Inventory Situation - The report indicates an increase in coal inventory levels at major ports, with Qinhuangdao port coal inventory rising to 544,000 tons, up 5.8% week-on-week [7]. 6. Coal Transportation Situation - The report provides insights into coal transportation metrics, including the volume of coal transported via the Daqin railway, which remained stable [7]. 7. Weather Conditions - The report does not provide specific weather-related insights but indicates that weather patterns may influence coal demand and supply dynamics [8]. 8. Listed Company Valuation and Key Announcements - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong growth potential and resource advantages, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy [13].