Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry, specifically focusing on the pig farming sector [2] Core Views - Jiangxi Province has abundant pig supply and significant capacity for external transfers, supporting demand in surrounding regions [2] - Group farms are leading the recovery of pig production capacity and accelerating regional expansion [5] - The competitive landscape in Jiangxi has shifted, with group farms now dominating the market, while small散户 are increasingly adopting secondary fattening as a strategy to mitigate market volatility [3][4] Summary by Sections Natural Conditions and Disease Risk Control - Jiangxi's natural conditions are favorable for pig farming, with hilly areas in the central and southern regions providing suitable environments [9] - The terrain, which slopes towards Poyang Lake, reduces disease risks in pig farming [9] - Pig farming is concentrated in the central and southern regions of Jiangxi, with Ganzhou, Yichun, and Ji'an being the top producers, accounting for 54.73% of the province's total output [9] Pig Supply and External Transfers - Jiangxi's pig supply exceeds local demand, with per capita pork production at 55.19 kg, higher than the per capita consumption of 33.23 kg [10] - The average price of commercial pigs in Jiangxi is slightly lower than the national average, at 16.13 yuan/kg compared to 16.15 yuan/kg [10] - Jiangxi is a major source of pig transfers to economically developed regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta [10] Competitive Landscape and Secondary Fattening - The competitive structure in Jiangxi has shifted post-African Swine Fever (ASF), with group farms now dominating, while small散户 are increasingly becoming代养户 or adopting secondary fattening [13] - The proportion of small散户 has declined significantly, from 97.83% in 2018 to 94.65% in 2022 [13] - Secondary fattening has become an important model in Jiangxi, providing small散户 with a flexible way to respond to market fluctuations [14] Capacity Recovery and Expansion Led by Group Farms - Group farms are actively replenishing their breeding sow inventory, leading the recovery of pig production capacity in Jiangxi [16] - The breeding sow inventory in Jiangxi dropped to 163.2万头 in 2023 due to low pig prices and disease outbreaks, but group farms are expected to drive recovery in 2024Q4 to 2025Q1 [16] - Small散户 are expected to continue reducing self-breeding and转向二次育肥 or代养模式, while group farms will leverage their scale and technological advantages for further expansion [16]
农林牧渔行业专题报告：生猪养殖区域专题系列四（江西省）：集团场规模扩张加速，产能外调育肥大省
华鑫证券·2024-10-20 01:00