房地产9月观察：筑底开始，关注价格信号

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2][11]. Core Insights - Overall, the decline in real estate data in September has slightly narrowed, indicating a potential turning point for the industry as policy measures are expected to take effect [4]. - Key metrics show improvements: real estate investment decreased by 9.4% (narrowed by 0.8 percentage points), sales area and amount fell by 11% and 16.3% respectively (narrowed by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points), and completed area dropped by 31.4% (narrowed by 5.2 percentage points). However, new construction area saw a significant decline of 19.9% (widened by 3.2 percentage points) [5]. - The report emphasizes two main points to watch: the effectiveness of policies and the investment behavior of real estate companies. The current policy measures are expected to be more effective than those in May, with market feedback anticipated in mid-October [5]. - The relationship between volume and price is undergoing reconstruction, with long-term sales expected to decline due to demographic and urbanization trends. However, prices are influenced more by credit conditions and economic factors rather than sales volume [5]. - As of September, new housing prices fell by 6.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 2.3 percentage points, while the second-hand housing price index dropped by 9% [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report suggests a focus on two investment strategies: one involves companies with clean balance sheets, such as China Merchants Shekou, China National Chemical Corporation, and Poly Developments, while the other focuses on restructuring progress with beneficiaries like CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [5]. Company Earnings Forecast - Key companies and their earnings forecasts are summarized, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating. For instance, Vanke A is projected to have an EPS of 0.74 in 2024, while Poly Developments is expected to have an EPS of 0.95 [7].