物流行业数据点评：9月价格企稳回升，看好旺季盈利修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][6] Core Insights - In September, the e-commerce express delivery prices stabilized and increased month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in profitability during the peak season [3][5] - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow around 20% for the entire year of 2024, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [4][5] - The report highlights that the competitive order in the industry is stabilizing, which may lead to a moderation in price competition [5][6] Summary by Sections Price Trends - In September, the average express delivery price for YTO Express was 2.18 yuan, up 0.5% month-on-month but down 6.8% year-on-year [3] - Yunda's average price was 2.01 yuan, up 1.0% month-on-month but down 12.2% year-on-year [3] - SF Express reported an average price of 16.00 yuan, up 2.1% month-on-month but down 7.0% year-on-year [3] Business Volume - The express delivery development scale index for September was 539.3, up 24.2% year-on-year [3] - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.312 billion pieces in September, up 28.0% year-on-year [4] - Yunda's business volume was 2.036 billion pieces, up 22.0% year-on-year [4] Profitability Outlook - The report anticipates that the single-ticket profit for express delivery companies may stabilize in Q3, with expectations for price increases in Q4 [5][6] - The overall industry is expected to see improvements in single-ticket profitability due to reduced price competition and cost improvements [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on ZTO Express, Yunda, and YTO Express for franchise models, while highlighting SF Express as a leading comprehensive express logistics company with significant long-term value potential [6]