医药生物周跟踪：原料药：为何能持续超额？

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Views - The active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) sector has consistently outperformed the broader pharmaceutical index since April 30, 2024, driven by supply-demand dynamics and global competitiveness [1] - The API sector has shown strong performance over the past decade, particularly in 2017, 2019-2021, and 2023-present, due to factors such as environmental regulations, public health events, and industrial upgrades [1] - The report is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the API sector, citing the industry's development stage, growth space, and global competitiveness [1] Sector Performance and Key Drivers 2017: Environmental Regulations and Supply Constraints - Environmental pressures led to supply shortages, causing price increases for key API products like vitamins and antibiotic intermediates [1] - Companies like Shengda Bio, Zhejiang Medicine, and Xinhecheng benefited from the price hikes, with significant stock price increases [1] 2019-2021: Public Health Events and Supply Chain Management - The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, leading to increased demand for APIs from China as Indian manufacturers faced shutdowns [1] - Companies like Aoxing Pharmaceutical, Sitagliptin, and Puluo Pharmaceutical saw strong performance due to their ability to manage supply chains and meet global demand [1] 2023-Present: Industrial Upgrades and Price Increases - The API sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies benefiting from industrial upgrades, synthetic biology, and forward integration [1] - Companies like Xinhuowei, Saituo Bio, and Zhejiang Medicine have seen strong performance due to product price increases and industrial transformation [1] Investment Recommendations Bulk APIs - Focus on companies with concentrated supply, stable demand, and rising product prices, such as Chuanning Bio and Guobang Pharmaceutical [4] Specialty APIs - Invest in companies undergoing industrial upgrades, such as forward integration or CDMO transformation, with emerging second growth curves, including Puluo Pharmaceutical, Xianju Pharmaceutical, and Aoxing Pharmaceutical [4] Policy and Market Trends Healthcare Reform - The healthcare reform in China is entering a deep-water zone, with a focus on improving grassroots medical services and reforming public hospitals [5] - The reform emphasizes balancing basic healthcare coverage with innovation promotion, with stricter regulations on medical insurance payments [5] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market in 2024, with a cumulative decline of 10.3% year-to-date [6] - The API sub-sector outperformed, with a 3.0% increase in the week of October 14-18, 2024, driven by chemical APIs and biologics [6] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with a PE ratio of 26.77x as of October 18, 2024 [6] - The report highlights opportunities in sectors like ophthalmic services, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical devices, driven by aging demographics and policy support [6] Key Companies to Watch - Companies with strong resource, brand, or licensing advantages, such as Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Dong-E-E-Jiao, and Tongrentang [9] - Companies with proven product iteration capabilities, such as Enhua Pharmaceutical and Kelun Pharmaceutical [9] - API companies benefiting from supply-side reforms, including Aoxing Pharmaceutical and Xianju Pharmaceutical [9]