黄金周度观察——2024年第43周

Price Movement - As of October 18, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 616.8 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 3.27%[5] - COMEX gold closed at 2719.6 USD/ounce, reflecting a weekly rise of 2.43%[5] - London spot gold was priced at 2712.5 USD/ounce, showing a weekly gain of 2.40%[5] Short-term Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels due to the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a remaining space for cuts this year[1] - Geopolitical conflicts are likely to influence risk aversion, further supporting gold prices[1] Long-term Investment Opportunities - The commencement of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle suggests a downward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, potentially raising the central price of gold[1] - Global economic challenges and geopolitical risks enhance gold's value as a safe-haven asset[1] Market Sentiment - As of October 18, 2024, the market anticipates a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) decreased to 18.03 points, indicating reduced market panic[10] ETF Holdings - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 10.65 tons to approximately 888.63 tons as of October 18, 2024[7] - iShares Gold ETF holdings rose by 1.35 tons to about 377.13 tons during the same period[7] Futures and Inventory - As of October 15, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold reached 286,434 contracts, an increase of 8,254 contracts from the previous week[15] - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 55,300 ounces to 1,699,280 ounces as of October 18, 2024[15]