Western Mining(601168) 国联证券·2024-10-20 04:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 36.725 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.732 billion yuan, up 24.33% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.766 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.84% year-on-year [2][6] - The main products, copper, lead, and zinc, have strong production potential, and metal prices are expected to rise further. The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 3.671 billion, 4.241 billion, and 4.850 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.61%, 15.53%, and 14.37% [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 11.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.02%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16.11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.112 billion yuan, up 60.91% year-on-year and 25.81% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average prices for lead, zinc, and copper in Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 11.5%, 5.1%, and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [6] Production and Projects - The company has successfully launched key projects, including the optimization and upgrading of the Yulong Copper Industry's selection plants, which significantly increased copper production in 2024 [6] - The annual processing capacity of the multi-metal selection project is expected to increase from 900,000 tons to 1.5 million tons, with annual production capacities for lead and zinc concentrates set at 41,400 tons and 57,400 tons, respectively [6] Market Outlook - The expectation of looser monetary policy and tight supply-demand dynamics are likely to push copper prices higher. The anticipated global copper supply shortage is expected to catalyze a new upward price cycle [6] - The company maintains a favorable outlook on the growth potential of its main products, with a projected EPS of 1.54, 1.78, and 2.04 yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.3, 9.8, and 8.5 times [2][6]