BYD(002594) 国联证券·2024-10-20 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD (002594) [5] Core Views - BYD released its 2024 employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) draft, involving no more than 150 employees and a total amount not exceeding RMB 220 million The unlocking periods are set at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months, with each unlocking point releasing 20% of the shares [2][7] - Historically, BYD has conducted two ESOPs in 2015 and 2022 The 2015 plan involved 97 employees and up to 32 66 million shares, while the 2022 plan involved up to 12,000 employees and a total amount of RMB 1 8-1 85 billion [2][7] - The company's DM5 0 technology, launched in May 2024, has significantly enhanced product competitiveness, with models like Qin L and Seal 06 DM-i achieving strong sales upon release [7] - BYD's high-end brand and overseas sales have shown robust growth, with high-end brand sales reaching 127,000 units in the first nine months of 2024, a 37 4% YoY increase Overseas sales reached 297,000 units, up 104 7% YoY [7] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 8130 6 billion, RMB 9529 8 billion, and RMB 11626 4 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 35 0%, 17 2%, and 22 0% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 38 94 billion, RMB 50 58 billion, and RMB 63 31 billion for 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 29 6%, 29 9%, and 25 2% [7] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 13 4, RMB 17 4, and RMB 21 8 per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 28 2% [7] Financial Ratios - The P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 22 4x, 17 3x, and 13 8x, respectively [8] - The P/B ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 5 1x, 4 0x, and 3 2x, respectively [8] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 12 7x, 9 8x, and 7 6x, respectively [8] Industry and Market Position - BYD operates in the automotive/passenger vehicle industry and is positioned as a global leader in the new energy vehicle sector [5][7] - The company's DM5 0 technology and strong performance in high-end and overseas markets are expected to further solidify its leading position in the industry [7]