商贸零售行业9月社零数据点评：9月社零同比+3.2%，消费市场运行企稳回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][19]. Core Insights - In September 2024, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points. The total retail sales reached 41,112 billion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.27% [1][3]. - The retail sales of consumer goods, excluding automobiles, amounted to 36,573 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points. This indicates a stabilizing recovery in the consumption market, driven by effective consumption promotion policies [1][2]. - Online consumption showed resilience, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 10,578 billion yuan, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales. Offline retail sales totaled 30,534 billion yuan, representing 74.3% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In September, the retail sales of goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, while catering revenue grew by 3.1%. The service industry production index rose by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in service consumption [1][2]. - The sales of essential consumer goods, such as grain and oil, increased by 11.1%, while optional consumption categories showed mixed results, with significant growth in home appliances and communication equipment [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce platforms benefiting from rational consumer spending and cross-border business expansion, such as Pinduoduo and Miniso. It also highlights traditional e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, which are seeing a recovery in core business [3]. - Local lifestyle leaders like Meituan and retail companies like Hema Retail are recommended due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3].