有色及贵金属周报：宏观预期向好，旺季支撑价格

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry, indicating a neutral outlook compared to the market index [64]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. retail sales data for September exceeded expectations, showcasing economic resilience. This has led to a recalibration of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve, while inflation concerns and ongoing liquidity easing persist. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have heightened risk aversion, contributing to a strong performance in precious metal prices. Domestic policies are also supportive, particularly for industrial metals, which are expected to perform well during the traditional peak season [3][4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - U.S. retail sales in September rose by 0.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 0.3%, and previous value of 0.1%. This strong consumer spending supports economic resilience. Initial jobless claims fell to 241,000, below the expected 260,000. Despite a decrease in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in 2024, inflation concerns remain, especially with escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula, which are driving up risk aversion and supporting precious metal prices [4][7]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with beneficiaries including Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and Shanjin International. The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and is currently in a peak demand season, which should support prices [4][8]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME and SHFE copper prices at $9,625.5 and ¥76,980 per ton, respectively. The copper processing rate has increased to 78.89%, indicating a recovery in demand. The report notes a tightening supply situation for copper concentrates, with the current treatment charge remaining at $12.9 per ton [15][42]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold at ¥619.06 per gram and COMEX gold at $2,736.40 per ounce, reflecting increases of 4.02% and 2.25% respectively. Silver prices also increased, with SHFE silver at ¥7,896 per kilogram and COMEX silver at $33.93 per ounce, showing gains of 3.15% and 6.83% respectively. The report indicates that gold inventories have increased slightly, while silver inventories have seen a significant rise [18][19]. 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, noting that China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and industrial value-added increased by 5.8% year-on-year, suggesting a positive economic outlook [4][7]. 5. Company Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for listed companies, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum highlighted for their growth potential. The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 are projected at ¥1.19 for Zijin Mining and ¥0.50 for Luoyang Molybdenum, indicating strong future performance [59].