煤炭行业定期报告：动力煤静待冬储释放，政策加持下焦煤仍可补涨

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Views - Short-term outlook: Thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, with Q4 price levels likely higher than Q3 Coking coal prices still have room for recovery, with policy being a key short-term variable The coal sector remains a favorable investment opportunity [1] - Long-term outlook: The coal industry is in a "golden era" due to energy security concerns and the "establish before dismantling" policy direction Supply constraints are evident due to strict capacity controls under the dual-carbon policy, regional supply differentiation, and increasing mining difficulties Coal demand remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures and the growth of alternative energy sources [1] Thermal Coal Analysis - As of October 18, 2024, Qinhuangdao Port 5500K thermal coal price was 840 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week-on-week (-1 4%) [1] - Coal mine operating rates in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia reached 83 4%, up 0 9 percentage points week-on-week [1] - Power plant daily coal consumption showed seasonal decline, while winter storage demand is gradually being released [1] - Methanol and urea operating rates remained at historically high levels for the same period (88 8% and 84 6% respectively) [1] Coking Coal Analysis - As of October 18, 2024, Jingtang Port main coking coal price was 1910 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton week-on-week [1] - Coking coal prices remained relatively stable at production sites [1] - Macroeconomic policy improvements and fiscal stimulus measures are expected to benefit the coal-coke-steel industry chain [1] - Large coking plants (>2 million tons capacity) saw operating rates increase to 79 8%, up 1 6 percentage points week-on-week [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with excellent resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Coal Energy [1] - Consider coal-power integrated companies benefiting from market-contract price differentials: Xinji Energy, Huaihe Energy, Shaanxi Energy [1] - Look for companies with production growth potential and sensitivity to coal price fluctuations: Shanxi Coal International, Jinneng Holding Coal Industry, Yankuang Energy, Huayang New Material, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Guanghui Energy, Gansu Energy Chemical [1] - Invest in companies with globally scarce resources benefiting from long-term supply tightness: Huaibei Mining, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal [1] Industry Data Highlights - Coal index underperformed CSI 300 by 1 89 percentage points this week [7] - Year-to-date coal index rose 5 93%, underperforming CSI 300 by 8 47 percentage points [7] - Top performers this week: Guanghui Energy (+4 31%), Xinji Energy (+2 36%), Anyuan Coal Industry (+2 25%) [9] - Underperformers this week: Yunnan Coal Energy (-4 85%), Zhengzhou Coal & Electric Power (-4 51%), Lu'an Environmental Energy (-2 90%) [9]