电子：海外科技周跟踪-聚焦阿斯麦、台积电Q3财报：AI需求引领半导体复苏周期

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" based on the expectation that the overall industry return will exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a recovery cycle driven by AI demand, with TSMC reporting a record high revenue and profit in Q3, while ASML's orders have significantly declined [2][4][7]. - TSMC's Q3 revenue reached $23.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a gross margin of 57.8%, indicating strong performance in the AI segment [4]. - ASML's Q3 net sales were €7.47 billion, with a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase, but the company has lowered its revenue guidance for 2025 due to weaker-than-expected recovery in other semiconductor areas [7]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q3 revenue was $23.5 billion, exceeding previous guidance, with a gross margin of 57.8%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company anticipates Q4 revenue to be between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 57% to 59% [4]. ASML Performance - ASML reported Q3 net sales of €7.47 billion, a 20% increase quarter-on-quarter, but a 53% decline in orders [7]. - The company has revised its 2025 revenue guidance down to €30-35 billion from €30-40 billion, reflecting challenges in the semiconductor recovery outside of AI [7]. Market Trends - The semiconductor sector is seeing a bifurcation where AI-related demand is strong, while other segments are recovering slower than expected [4][7]. - TSMC noted that the demand for advanced processes, particularly 2nm technology, is higher than previously anticipated, indicating a shift in customer interest [4]. NVIDIA Collaboration - NVIDIA has opened its GB200 technology partnership list, including several A-share companies, indicating a growing ecosystem in data center technology [3]. Stock Performance - The report highlights significant stock movements, with TSMC's shares rising over 12% post-earnings, while ASML's shares fell over 17% following its earnings report [2][4].