煤炭行业月报：供给小幅增加，需求企稳回升

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slight increase in supply and a stabilization in demand for coal, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [3][4] - The report highlights that the coal production and imports have shown year-on-year growth, with domestic coal production in September reaching 414 million tons, a 4.4% increase year-on-year [11][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for demand support from winter storage and economic recovery, particularly with new real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [4][16] Supply Side Summary - Domestic coal production in September was 414 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year and 4.52% month-on-month; cumulative production from January to September reached 3.476 billion tons, a 0.6% increase year-on-year [11][12] - Coal imports in September totaled 47.59 million tons, a 3.8% month-on-month increase and a 12.9% year-on-year increase; cumulative imports from January to September reached 38.913 million tons, up 11.9% year-on-year [12][14] Demand Side Summary - Total electricity generation in September was 802.4 billion kilowatt-hours, a 6% year-on-year increase; coal-fired power generation was 545.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an 8.9% year-on-year increase [16][19] - The report notes a divergence in demand across different sectors, with coal demand expected to rise due to seasonal heating needs and supportive economic policies [4][16] Inventory and Price Summary - National coal inventory in September was 67 million tons, a 1.47% decrease month-on-month but a 1.52% increase year-on-year; key power plants had an average coal inventory of 10.7 million tons, a 0.7% year-on-year increase [30][32] - The average price of Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal (Q5500) in September was 856.24 yuan/ton, a 1.92% increase month-on-month but a 7.44% decrease year-on-year [30][36]