供需侧双重利好，制冷剂景气有望超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is expected to benefit from both supply and demand sides, with refrigerant market conditions likely to exceed expectations [1] - Strong external demand and improving domestic demand are driving growth in the air conditioning sector, with a projected global shipment of 196 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to reach 178 million units, up 10.5% year-on-year, while sales are projected at 173 million units, reflecting an 11.4% increase [3] - The internal sales market shows a slight decline, with a 1.8% decrease, while external sales have surged by 30.9% [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to accelerate domestic appliance sales, with production for air conditioning expected to grow by 5.2%, 8.0%, and 10.4% year-on-year from October to December [3] - The domestic market is supported by increased subsidies and broader coverage of the "old-for-new" policy [3] External Market Dynamics - The resilience of home appliance exports is anticipated to maintain high growth rates, with production for air conditioning exports projected to increase by 51%, 41%, and 11.4% year-on-year from October to December [3] - Emerging markets such as Latin America and the Middle East present significant growth potential for Chinese home appliance exports [3] Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has set quotas for the production and use of ozone-depleting substances, which will reduce production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively [3] - The new quota for R32 is expected to mitigate risks associated with temporary quotas, with an increase of 45,000 tons compared to 2024 [3] Industry Self-Regulation - Major domestic refrigerant companies have signed an initiative to combat illegal production and sales of HFCs, promoting healthy industry development [4] - Key players in the refrigerant market are entering maintenance periods, which may impact supply [4] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Sanmei Co., Ltd., Juhua Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., Ltd. as potential investment targets [4]