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煤炭行业点评:回购增持再贷款落地,板块配置价值凸显
Tebon Securities·2024-10-20 06:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The implementation of the stock repurchase and increase loan policy by the People's Bank of China is expected to enhance the allocation of high-dividend coal stocks, with a first phase loan amount of 300 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.75% [3]. - The coal industry's fundamental bottom has been confirmed, with the potential for dividend value to be reshaped, as coal prices have not fallen below 800 yuan/ton despite pressures [3][4]. - The report highlights three key investment directions: quality dividends, dual-coke elasticity, and long-term increments, recommending specific companies within these categories [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has shown a market performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -17% to +43% from October 2023 to June 2024 [2]. Policy Impact - The recent policy changes, including the reduction of deposit rates and the introduction of special loan tools, are expected to favor high-dividend assets, particularly in the coal sector [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply side has weakened over the past two years, leading to a potential price rebound due to supply constraints, while demand is expected to remain stable due to seasonal factors and supportive policies [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend yields such as Shaanxi Coal and Energy, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, while also highlighting companies with dual-coke elasticity and long-term growth potential [4].