2024年9月经济数据点评：经济波动中运行，边际回升信号明显

Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5% in the first half[2] - The GDP growth for Q3 was 4.6%, slightly above market expectations, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9%[2] - The third sector's growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%, while the first and second sectors saw declines of 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively[2] Policy Impact - The central government plans to implement additional fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand, with local special bond issuance reaching approximately CNY 3.6 trillion by the end of September, accounting for 92% of the annual target[2][9] - Monetary policy measures, including the "three arrows" initiative, aim to reduce financing costs for the real economy and boost confidence among residents and businesses[2] Industrial Production - From January to September 2024, the industrial added value grew by 5.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous period[5] - In September, the industrial added value increased by 5.4%, marking a 0.9 percentage point rise from August, indicating a recovery from previous declines[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first nine months, slightly above market expectations[8] - Infrastructure investment saw a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, while broad infrastructure investment grew by approximately 9.26%[8][9] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to earlier months[11] - New housing starts fell by 22.2%, but the rate of decline has slowed, indicating potential stabilization in the market[11][12] Consumer Spending - In the first three quarters, per capita disposable income grew by 5.2% nominally, with real growth at 4.9%, reflecting a decline from earlier in the year[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with a notable rebound in automotive and home appliance sales due to government incentives[17]