农林牧渔行业周报：需求拉动短期猪价回涨，但不改长期向下趋势，双十一宠物产品需求增长亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the pig farming industry and highlights a positive outlook for the pet food sector [4][19]. Core Insights - Short-term demand recovery has led to a rebound in pig prices, but the long-term trend for piglet and market pig prices remains a gradual decline. The average price for market pigs this week is 17.99 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.35 yuan/kg. The price for 7 kg piglets has also increased to 312.86 yuan/head, up 10.6% week-on-week [18][28]. - The report emphasizes that the fluctuations in pig prices are primarily driven by changes in supply rather than demand. It is expected that supply will continue to increase slowly in Q4 2024, leading to a gradual decline in prices by the end of the year, although prices are expected to remain profitable due to slow recovery in overall production capacity [18][28]. - The pet food industry is experiencing significant growth, with exports of retail packaged pet food reaching 28,500 tons in August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.68%. Domestic demand is also strong, with notable sales during the pre-sale period for the Double Eleven shopping festival [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The report reviews the market performance from October 14 to October 18, 2024, noting that the pig farming sector has seen a significant price increase, while other sectors have shown varied performance [12][16]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the release of 19,600 tons of frozen pork from central reserves and highlights an upcoming major pig farming conference in Chengdu, which will address current challenges and future trends in the industry [16][17]. 3. Stock Recommendations - Key stocks recommended include: - Juxing Agriculture (603477.SH) for its leading cost position and potential for cost reduction in 2024 [20]. - Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ) for its recovery potential following restructuring [20]. - Dekang Agriculture (2019.HK) for its competitive cost structure [20]. 4. Industry Data - As of October 18, 2024, the average price for market pigs is 17.99 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 16.36%. The pig feed ratio is reported at 6.04, indicating profitability trends in pig farming [22][28].