研究院专题报告：9月M1增速续创新低

Economic Indicators - In September, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 3.76 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 3.52 trillion yuan, but down 369.2 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The issuance of RMB loans to the real economy rose by 1.9742 trillion yuan, a decrease of 562.7 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, primarily contributing to the decline in TSF[1] - The net financing of corporate bonds was -192.6 billion yuan, down 257.6 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to high credit bond rates and reduced issuance by local government financing vehicles[1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 6.3%[3] - The narrow money supply (M1) decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, slightly worsening from a 7.3% decline in August[3] - The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 expanded to 14.2%, up from 13.6% in August, indicating a shift in liquidity preferences[3] Consumer Sentiment - The consumer employment expectation index for August was recorded at 72.2, down from 73.0 in July, indicating a declining trend over six consecutive months[2] - The consumer income expectation index fell to 94.5 in August from 95.0 in July, remaining below the critical value of 100, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment towards increasing debt[2] Government Financing - Government bond net financing increased by 1.5357 trillion yuan in September, up 543.7 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in government borrowing[1] - The total balance of government bonds reached 76.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, further highlighting the government's increasing leverage amid weak demand from enterprises and households[3] Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 signaled strong support for stable growth, suggesting that fiscal policy will likely intensify while monetary policy remains accommodative[3] - There is potential for M1 growth to gradually turn around in the future as fiscal measures are expected to be implemented to address insufficient effective demand[3]