三季度经济数据点评：4.6之后的政策逻辑

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth was 4.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate of the year[2] - To achieve the annual growth target of 5%, Q4 GDP needs to accelerate significantly[2] - The first three quarters saw GDP growth rates of 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6% respectively[2] Industrial and Investment Performance - Industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 9.4%[2] - Broad infrastructure investment growth outpaced narrow infrastructure, reflecting accelerated project investment by central finance[2] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from consumption and investment policies[3] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with notable improvements in household appliances and automotive sales[3] - The consumption recovery is supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumer spending[3] - In September, retail sales growth was primarily driven by household appliances and automotive sectors, contributing 103% to the overall retail sales improvement[3] Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on October 21, indicating a supportive macroeconomic stance[3] - The government emphasizes achieving the annual economic and social development goals, with a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2024[3] - The focus of incremental policies includes stabilizing confidence, preventing risks, and promoting consumption[3] Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a "strong expectation" phase, with policy expectations becoming the focal point of market dynamics[2] - There is a divergence in market perception regarding the effectiveness of short-term versus long-term policies, impacting market volatility[3] - The stock market remains a key indicator of risk appetite, while the bond market presents long-term investment value despite short-term fluctuations[3]