宏观周报：逆周期政策力度不减，美国消费仍具韧性

Domestic Economic Policy - The Ministry of Finance has indicated significant room for increasing fiscal deficit and issuing bonds to support economic growth, with a current central government leverage ratio of approximately 24.6% and local government leverage ratio of about 33.2%[5] - The Hong Kong government plans to establish an international gold trading market and a 10 billion HKD "Innovation and Technology Industry Guidance Fund" to enhance economic development and promote RMB internationalization[6] - The government aims to implement 1 million new housing units through monetized resettlement and renovation of dilapidated buildings, which is expected to accelerate inventory reduction in the real estate market[8] International Economic Developments - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating potential further cuts due to economic weakness, with inflation risks still present[11] - The U.S. retail sales for September increased by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, indicating resilient consumer spending despite a projected holiday sales growth of only 2.5% to 3.5% for 2024, lower than last year's 5.3%[14] Market Trends and Data - Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.57% week-on-week, while iron ore prices increased by 0.1%[17] - The price index for cement rose by 1.44%, while the price index for rebar decreased by 1.5% week-on-week[20]