计算机行业：从英特尔中国业务看信创投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The upcoming quarterly earnings reports are expected to show significant volatility and differentiation among companies in the computer sector, with 336 stocks in the Shenwan computer index, of which only 17 have disclosed earnings forecasts or reports so far [3][8]. - The report highlights a historical high in risk appetite, with notable performance in the securities IT sector, where companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Tonghuashun have seen average weekly gains of 18.7% [3][8]. - There is a strong long-term upward trend in the computer industry, driven by policies supporting domestic demand and debt, particularly in the G-end market [3][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The report anticipates increased volatility and differentiation as the quarterly earnings disclosure window approaches, with a significant number of companies set to report in the coming weeks [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor marginal changes in industries and individual stocks due to the current high-risk appetite [3][8]. Intel's Business in China - Intel remains the global leader in CPU market share, with a 61% share in Q1 2024, while AMD holds 35.8%, together accounting for 96.8% of the market [10][11]. - Intel's revenue in mainland China exceeded 100 billion RMB, although it has seen a decline from 20 billion USD in 2019 to 14.9 billion USD in 2023 [10][11]. Domestic CPU Performance - Domestic CPU manufacturers are rapidly improving their product performance, with leading products nearing international standards [14][17]. - The revenue of domestic CPU companies has significantly increased, with Haiguang's revenue growing from 400 million RMB in 2019 to 6 billion RMB in 2023 [17]. Investment Opportunities in the Xinchuang Industry Chain - The report suggests focusing on the Xinchuang industry chain, highlighting key segments such as chips, basic software, and complete machines [19]. - Recommended companies include Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and China Software among others [19]. Market Performance Review - The computer index rose by 11.15% from October 13 to October 19, outperforming both the ChiNext index and the Shanghai Composite index [21][22]. - The report provides a detailed performance review of major indices, indicating strong growth in the computer sector [21][22].