Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate post-cycle industry [5]. Core Insights - In the week of October 19, 2024, all segments of the real estate post-cycle industry outperformed the market, except for white and small home appliances. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.98%, while segments such as black home appliances, service robots, kitchen appliances, furniture, and lighting and electrical segments increased by 16.21%, 5.19%, 3.71%, 1.44%, and 1.07% respectively, outperforming the market by 15.23 percentage points, 4.21 percentage points, 2.73 percentage points, 0.46 percentage points, and 0.09 percentage points. In contrast, small home appliances and white home appliances fell by 0.09% and 1.95%, underperforming the market by 1.07 percentage points and 2.93 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Data Tracking - In September 2024, retail sales of furniture and home appliances both showed year-on-year growth. Furniture retail sales reached 14.2 billion yuan, with a monthly increase of 0.4% and a cumulative increase of 1.1%. Home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales amounted to 84.1 billion yuan, with a monthly increase of 20.5% and a cumulative increase of 4.4% [30][31]. - The prices of raw materials for furniture increased, while those for home appliances showed mixed trends. TDI spot prices rose by 2.6% and MDI prices increased by 2.1%. Meanwhile, aluminum prices increased by 0.6%, while stainless steel and copper prices fell by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively [2][15]. - The transaction volume of second-hand houses in nine major cities in September 2024 increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a total of 39,400 units sold. However, the cumulative year-on-year decline was 1.5% [22][29]. Export Data Tracking - In September 2024, the export value of home appliances increased by 4.5% year-on-year, amounting to 8.559 billion USD, while the export value of furniture and its parts decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, totaling 4.660 billion USD [34][35]. - In August 2024, the U.S. existing home sales decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, while the number of privately owned housing starts increased by 3.9% year-on-year [34][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines in the real estate post-cycle sector: 1. Emphasizing the clean appliance segment with significant growth potential, recommending companies like Stone Technology (688169, Buy) and Ecovacs (603486, Buy) which have shown strong export growth and increasing domestic market share. 2. Highlighting leading companies with stable performance and high dividend ratios, recommending Supor (002032, Hold), Oppein (603833, Buy), Sophia (002572, Buy), and ZB Home (603801, Buy) [3].
造纸轻工行业地产后周期产业链数据每周速递：2024年9月家具、家电零售额同比均有增长
Orient Securities·2024-10-20 08:15