PAB(000001) INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-10-20 08:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - Revenue decline has slightly narrowed, while profit growth has slowed. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.6% and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, respectively [4][6]. - Retail AUM and high-quality customer base continue to grow steadily. As of the end of Q3 2024, retail AUM reached 4.15 trillion yuan, up 2.9% from the end of the previous year [4][6]. - Credit growth has slowed, and retail structure continues to be optimized. Total assets increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while loans decreased by 1.1% [2][4]. - The net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.87% in Q3 2024 [5][6]. - The retail non-performing loan ratio is expected to stabilize gradually, with a slight decline in the provision coverage ratio [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 111.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit of 39.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [4][6]. - Breakdown of revenue sources shows net interest income down 20.6%, fee income down 18.5%, and investment-related income up 57.9% [4][6]. Asset and Loan Structure - As of Q3 2024, total assets increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with loans down 1.1% [2][4]. - Public loans contributed to the main incremental growth, with a 17.0% increase year-on-year, while retail loans decreased by 9.6% [2][4]. Interest Margin and Costs - The net interest margin for Q3 2024 was 1.87%, down 4 basis points from the previous quarter [5][6]. - The cost-to-income ratio for the first three quarters was 27.4%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio as of Q3 2024 was 1.06%, stable compared to the end of the previous year, while the retail non-performing loan ratio was 1.43% [5][6]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 251% [6]. Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been slightly adjusted to 2.36 yuan and 2.40 yuan, respectively [3][6]. - The estimated book value per share at the end of 2024 is 22.86 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-book ratio of 0.53 times [3][6].